Indicators of Labour Demand - Reserve Bank of （劳动力需求的指标储备银行）.pdf

Indicators of Labour Demand Kim Edwards and Linus Gustafsson* There are several indicators of labour demand that can be used to assess labour market conditions and as inputs into forecasts of employment growth. These include measures of job vacancies, job advertisements and business surveys of employment intentions. Over the past year, there have been pronounced declines in a number of these indicators and employment growth has been somewhat subdued. This article suggests that as well as being a source of information on current labour market conditions, these indicators provide some leading information on employment growth, although the forecasting performance of models including these indicators is only slightly better than that of a simple benchmark model. Introduction the vacant positions are filled. Similarly, a fall in the demand for labour may be observed in a slowing Employers looking to hire new staff generally engage in search activity before the effect on employment in various activities to find suitable employees. Jobs growth becomes apparent. For this reason, these vary according to the skills employers require and the measures are often called ‘leading’ indicators of location of the business, while prospective employees employment. vary in their qualifications, experience and ability, which may be hard for employers to assess. Moreover, This article explores the relationship between hiring a new employee entails costs such as training the