Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Oil Exporting （宏观经济动态的石油出口）.pdf

International Journal of Business and Social Science Vol. 2 No. 21 [Special Issue –November 2011] Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Oil Exporting Countries: A Panel VAR study Mohsen Mehrara Faculty of Economics University of Tehran Tehran, Iran Mohsen Mohaghegh MSc in Economics University of Tehran Iran Abstract This paper studies the macroeconomic dynamics in oil exporting countries using Panel VAR approach. This study in contrary with most other researches focuses on developing net oil exporters –instead of developed net importers- and in addition to investigating macroeconomic fluctuations, provid esfresh insight into the impacts of oil shocks on macroeconomic variables. On the basis of Impulse Response and Variance Decompositions analysis in a system included economic output, money supply, price index and oil price, we found that: (1) oil shocks are not necessarily inflationary; (2) money is not neutral in these countries; (3) money is the main cause of macroeconomic fluctuations; (4) oil shocks significantly affect economic output and money supply; (5) though oil price is highly driven by its own shocks , domestic shocks, particularly output and money shocks, can sizably affect oil price in the world market. Key Words: Macroeconomic fluctuations, Oil exporting countries, Panel data, VAR model JEL Classification: C32, E34, F41 1. Introduction Energy plays the central role in the world economy. Inspite of considerable i