基于情景分析的北京机动车污染排放控制研究.pdfVIP

中国环境科学 2013,33(9) ：1690~1696 China Environmental Science 基于情景分析的北京市机动车污染排放控制研究 * 郭秀锐 ,吉木色,郎建垒,陈东升,程水源 (北京工业大学环境与能源工程学院,北京 100124) 摘要：为了研究未来北京市机动车排放控制措施的减排效果,本文基于情景分析 , 以 2010 年为基准年,通过设置 3 类控制措施情景,估算 2011~2020 年不同情景下北京市机动车常规污染物排放量,并在基准情景基础上,估算污染物减排量,分析控制措施对不同类型机动车的减 排贡献.结果表明,尽管未来北京市机动车保有量会有较大增长,实施机动车排放控制措施仍可取得显著的减排效果.单一措施中,淘汰高排 放车减排量最大.其中,淘汰轻型客车可有效减少 CO 的排放,减排贡献率为 89.4%;淘汰重型客车可对 NOx 、HC 和 PM10 达到有效削减,其贡 献率分别为 65.5%、55.8%、93.4%.实施新的排放标准对重型柴油车的排放也有明显控制效果,且 4 种污染物都能得到有效削减.综合实施 各种措施的效果最为显著,2020 年对 CO、NOx 、HC 、PM10 的削减效果分别达到 46.4% 、42.1% 、8.6%和 50.6%. 关键词：机动车污染；情景分析；减排量；北京 中图分类号：X511 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2013)09-1690-07 * Based on the scenario analysis of Beijing motor vehicle emission control research. GUO Xiu-rui , JI Mu-se, LANG Jian-lei, CHEN Dong-sheng, CHENG Shui-yuan (College of Environmental and Energy Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China). China Environmental Science, 2013,33(9)：1690~1696 Abstract ：Effect of vehicular emission control measures in future years (2011~2020) was assessed based on the scenario analysis in Beijing. The conventional pollutants emissions of motor vehicle in three kinds of control measures scenarios in future years have been estimated, which compared with the Business-as-usual (BAU)scenario to calculate the emission reduction. The results indicated that although the Beijing motor vehicle population would have a certain growth, emission control measures would get significant effect. The elimination of high-emission vehicles achieved the largest reduction in all of single measures. The light-duty vehicle elimination can effectively reduce CO emission, and the contribution rate was 89.4%; Similarly, the heavy-duty vehicle elimination can reduce NOx , HC and PM10effectively,and the