Adoption of New Technology Econometrics （采用新技术,计量经济学）.pdf

New Economy Handbook: Hall and Khan November 2002 Adoption of New Technology Bronwyn H. Hall University of California at Berkeley Beethika Khan University of California at Berkeley Outline I. Introduction II. Modeling diffusion III. Demand determinants IV. Supply behavior V. Environmental and institutional factors VI. Concluding thoughts Keywords technology adoption. The choice to acquire and use a new invention or innovation. diffusion. The process by which something new spreads throughout a population. network goods. Products for which demand depends partly on the number of other users. 1 New Economy Handbook: Hall and Khan November 2002 technological standards. A set of technical specifications that characterize how a technology operates or interfaces with other technologies, e.g., CDMA for mobile telephones. real option. A choice between doing nothing and paying a certain fixed amount to purchase an uncertain return. An option is real as opposed to financial if it involves investment in real assets. Overview The contribution of new technology to economic growth can only be realized when and if the new technology is widely diffused and used. Diffusion itself results from a series of individual decisions to begin using the new technology, decisions which are often the result of a comparison of the uncertain benefits of the new invention with the uncertain costs of adopting it. An understanding of the factors affecting this choice is essential both for economists studying the determinants of growth and for the creators and producers of such technologies. Section II of this article discusses the modeli