ANZ INSIGHTS COMMERCIAL BANKING ASIA （澳新银行亚洲商业银行的见解）.pdf

“Private and Condential - Restricted Circulation” ANZ INSIGHTS COMMERCIAL BANKING ASIA GLOBAL PLASTICS INDUSTRY Market Update December 2012 Global Plastics Industry: Asia set to become the next centre-stage Despite a recent dip in production following the global nancial crisis, global plastic demand has recovered. The demand story is strong – per capita consumption in Asia is a fraction of the developed markets and is forecast to 1 increase by more than 40% by 2015. Developing market consumption is growing too. Packaging, construction, cars and healthcare are driving this growth as disposable income increases, economies grow and urbanisation accelerates. Every 1kg increase in per capita plastic consumption in Asia (excluding Japan) equates to an approximate increase in demand of 4 million tonnes. This is 2% of the 2010 global production level and more than 10% of China’s expected 2012 consumption. There is currently an oversupply of most plastic resins in Asia. While demand is growing, production capacity has grown faster and this supply imbalance is the primary factor that explains the historically uncommon situation of resin prices materially below oil prices. This price weakness will have a negative impact on Asian resin producers (whose costs remain closely linked to oil prices) but downstream manufacturers stand to benet. Further into the future, huge increases in global natural gas supplies (initially in the US) should help to keep most resin prices relatively stable and signicant price increases are unlikely. THE PLASTICS INDUS