方法决定结果.ppt

Methodology Determines Outcome  ---- Abduction and Falsification Qian G.L. Based on comment on…, weak consciousness on methodology and monotonous methods prevailing in …. As a direct result, … Methods immediately determine success or failure. So we have to be very clear about methodology. However, having their own strong and weak points as well as values, methods of various hues are complementary. Logically, blind faith in a monotonous method is not way out. Some of methods are good at finding limited conclusions from limited facts, while others, significantly theoretical foresights, innovations and creations. … research orientation determines method, consequently, the latter determines outcome. [第一部分] 关于abduction is C.S. Peirce’s term When we encounter a new phenomenon which cannot be explained through the application of a general law, we should pick out certain characteristic features of this new phenomenon and attempt to find relations among these features. After forming several theories or hypotheses which might explain the phenomenon, we should select one of them to test against experience. （to be continued） [关于abduction] ……Such a process of reasoning to form empirical theories or hypotheses for testing is called abduction. …… “Presumption, or more precisely, abduction…furnishes the reasoner with the problematic theory which induction verifies. ---- Peirce, Collected Works, II; p.277. Nicholas Bunnin,余纪元：《Dictionary of Western Philosophy: English-Chinese；西方哲学英汉对照辞典》，3-4页。 “abduction是一个形成解释性假设的过程。它是唯一一种能够引入新观念的逻辑操作。” ——Peirce, CPⅤ, p. 106 “……一个自身具有可能性，并且使（观察到的）事实具有可能性的假设就需要提出来。这个由事实驱动的提出假设的过程，就是我所说的abduction。” ——Peirce, CPⅦ, pp. 121-122 故abduction可译为“事实--假设--求证”法,汉字是多了一点，但把整个过程、基本步骤、基本规律表述得一览无余。 其中，“假设”可以换成“预言”、“预测” 事实-假设-求证法的特征： （一）创新性 （二）认知上的相似性 创新性 只有abduction能为我们带来新的观念。 ——Peirce, CPⅤ, p. 106 创新性 “这（abduction）是一种洞察性的行为，尽管这种洞察可能是错误的。虽然假设中的不同要素都已经存在于我们的头脑之中，但是我们此前从来没有想过将其放在一起。正是这种将这些要素放在一起