基于不确定性的故障预测方法综述-控制与决策.pdf

第29 卷 第5 期 控 制 与 决 策 2014 年 5 月 Vol. 29 No. 5 Control and Decision May 2014 文章编号: 1001-0920 (2014) 05-0769-10 DOI: 10.13195/j.kzyjc.2013.1134 基于不确定性的故障预测方法综述 孙 强, 岳继光 ( 同济大学电子与信息工程学院，上海201804) 摘 要: 故障预测是实现视情维修策略的基础. 不确定性问题在故障预测中普遍存在, 对此, 总结了基于不确定性的 故障预测方法的关键问题, 并以不确定性属性的特点将现有故障预测方法分为基于随机性、模糊性、灰性及混合不 确定性等4 类. 综述了各类方法的研究现状与不足, 并展望了基于不确定性的故障预测方法的发展趋势, 探讨了基于 区间不确定性的故障预测方法的可行性. 关键词: 故障预测；不确定性；随机性；模糊性；灰性；区间不确定性 中图分类号: TP206.3 文献标志码: A Review on fault prognostic methods based on uncertainty SUN Qiang, YUE Ji-guang (College of Electronic and Information Engineering，Tongji University ，Shanghai 201804，China. Correspondent ：SUN Qiang，E-mail ：10qsun@tongji.edu.cn) Abstract: Fault prognosis is the fundamental of realizing condition based maintenance. Uncertain problems exist in the general process of fault prognosis. Therefore, the key issues of fault prognosis based on uncertainty are summarized. Then existing fault prognostic methods are categorized into four types, i.e. methods based on randomness, fuzziness, grey property and integrated property. A review is made on the current research status and shortcomings of the main methods. The development trends of fault prognostic methods based on uncertainty are indicated, and the feasibility of possible fault prognostic methods based on interval uncertainty is discussed. Key words: fault prognosis ；uncertainty ；randomness ；fuzziness ；grey property ；interval uncertainty 0 引引引 言言言 [5-6] 寿命, RUL) 的估计 . 故障与失效率密切相关. 按照 设备维护与保障理论和技术经历了事后维修、 统计规律, 一般系统全寿命周期中失效率变化为“浴