基于熵值法和gm11模型的重庆城生态系统健康评价.pdf

中国环境科学 2012,32(6) ：1148~1152 China Environmental Science 基于熵值法和 GM(1,1)模型的重庆城市生态系统健康评价 郭锐利 1,郑钦玉 1,2*,刘 娟 2,李美荣 2 (1.南方山地农业教育部工程研究中心,重庆 400716 ；2.西南大学农学与 生物科技学 ,重庆 400715) 摘要：应用信息熵值反映数据本身的效用值来计算指标权重系数,建立熵权综合评价模 ,对重庆城市生态系统健康进行了评价.根据评价 结果和灰理论数学建模特点,建立 GM(1,1)灰色预测模 ,对重庆市生态系统健康进行了动态预测分析.结果表明:2005~2009 年期间,重庆城 市生态系统健康总体水平良好,其中各要素指数评价大小依次是活力指数、恢复力指数、组织结构指数、服务功能指数、人群生活指 数;2010~2015 年期间,重庆城市生态系统健康综合评价值将以 e0.1268 的增速保持良好发展态势.此外,建立以熵权综合评价为基础的 GM(1,1) 灰色预测模型对城市生态系统健康进行评价,能够得出更客观、更全面的评价结果. 关键词：熵值法；灰色预测模型；城市生态系统健康；重庆市 中图分类号：X171.1 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2012)06-1148-05 1 Ecosystem health assessment of Chongqing City based on entropy and GM (1, 1) model. GUO Rui-li , ZHENG 1,2* 2 2 Qin-yu , LIU Juan , LI Mei-rong (1.Engineering Research Center of South Upland Agriculture,Ministry of Education,Chongqing 400716, China ；2.College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China). China Environmental Science, 2012,32(6)：1148~1152 Abstract ：Entropy-comprehensive evaluation model was established to assess the health level of urban ecosystem in Chongqing, China, the coefficients of weight index were derived from the available value of data reflecting the information entropy. Based on the evaluation results and mathematical modeling theory, GM (1,1) grey prediction model was established to make dynamic trend analysis of ecological health in Chongqing City. The experimental results indicated that the overall level of urban ecosystem health was continuously improved from 2005 to 2009, the elements index arranged in order of evaluation value