内蒙古自治区畜牧业生产影响因素分析20011武汉大学mpacc.doc

内蒙古自治区畜牧业生産影响因素分析（初稿） 日本神户大学经济科 姚万君 摘要 本文运用Engle.R.F and C.W.Jgranger[1987] 的协整检定方法和Gregory ，A. W. and Hansen, B.E.[1996]的考虑结构变化时的协整检定方法验证了内蒙古自治区畜牧业总生产及其说明变量间具有稳定的协整关系。同时我们发现内蒙古的畜牧业生产在1982年或1983年时点发生了结构变化，再一次验证了农村改革对农业生产增长和经济发展的促进效果。然后应用一般化最小二乘法推定了各个要素对畜牧业总生产的影响效果。发现在观测期间1962年——2002年的41年里内蒙古自治区以传统的放牧方式为中心的畜牧业生产方式几乎没有得到改善。在改革开放前和改革开放后，年末大动物数的弹力性均为1.25，说明了年末大动物数对畜牧业生产具有其他要素不能比拟的重要性。畜牧业劳动力，人均粮食消费量和人均GDP的弹力性在改革前和改革后分别为0.53, 1.17，-0.52和-0.66，0.36，0.53。最后，为了实现内蒙古自治区畜牧业的稳定增长在贯彻退耕还林，还草，保护草原恢复生态的前提下，在短期内，必须要改变传统的生产方式，提高动物个体的生产性；稳定和扩大农业生产；有效调控畜牧业和其他产业间的劳动力移动。 关键词： 内蒙古 畜牧业 协整关系 结构变化 一般化最小二乘法 　　　　　　　　　　　Abstract Gross product of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia have a stable cointegration relation with its explanatory variable by cointegration tests of Engle.R.F-C.W.Jgranger and Gregory ，A. W. - Hansen, B.E. which includes change of structure. We discover that production of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia has taken place change of structure at 1982 or 1983, verify that village reform promoted growth of the agriculture and development of economy again. Then, estimated coefficients of explanatory variable by applying generalized least squares. Detect that traditional grazing method in Inner Mongolia almost haven’t got an improvement during the period of 1962-2002. The big animal count of elasticity all is 1.25 from 1962, therefore the big animal count is the most importance. Labor force of animal husbandry, consumption of the food and GDP elasticity per capita is 0.53, 1.17, -0.52 before reform and -0.66, 0.36, 0.53 after reform. Lastly, for carrying out the stable growth of gross product of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia, we have to change the mode of traditional production in the short date, under the premise that carry through to return a wood and grass, protect grassland, resume ecosystem; extend production of agriculture; Adjust the move of labor force between animal husbandry with the other industry effectively. Key words: Inner Mongolia The ani