农药残留预测模型可靠性的检验与改良-应用生态学报.pdf

1999 10 10 5 CH IN ESE J OU RNA L O F APPL IED ECOL OGY , Oct . 1999, 10( 5)!599~ 602 * * * 王玉杰 张大克 ( , 130118) . , , , . , , , . Test and improvement of model reliability for predicting insecticide residue. Wang Y ujie and Zhang Dake ( Dep art ment of Basic Science, Jilin A gricultural University , Changchun 130 118) . Chin. J. App l . Ecol . , 1999, 10( 5) : 599 ~ 602. Acco ding to the theo y of condition numbe of mat ix , this pape p ovided a method fo testing the eliability of p e dicting model, and on the basis of idg e eg ession theo y , the method fo imp oving un eliable p edicting model was built, w hich was tested by p edicting the esidue dynamics of fenvale ate in cabbag es. T he esults showed the p ecision of p edicting model w as inc eased by a big ange. Key words M odel fo p edicting insect icide esidue, Reliability, T esting method, Imp ovement method. 1 , , . , , , , . . , 3 , , , , . , . , , ! , y = 0 + 1x ( 1) , ( 1) . 0 1 ^ 0 ^ 1 [ 7] 2 n n n ∀ x i ∀ y i ,