黑天鹅式生存（Black swan survival）.doc

黑天鹅式生存（Black swan survival） When butterflies flap their wings, people know what is going to happen: could it cause a storm in the Mississippi Valley, or press Edward? Lorenzs earliest statement: a tornado that could cause a month later in Texas. But when the black swan flaps its wings, do people know whats going to happen? Anyway, I know, people will know nothing! Or, in other words, anything is possible. Before the discovery of Australia, Europeans thought swans were white before seventeenth Century. Black swan used to be the idiom of European speech and writing, used to refer to impossible things, but as the first black swan appeared, the unshakable belief collapsed. The existence of the black swan implies unpredictable and rare events. It is unexpected, but it changes everything. Black swan is unpredictable, either in stock market expectations or in government decisions. 9? 11, the occurrence of the incident, the United States sub loan crisis, Chinas snowstorm, are so. Randomness can be seen everywhere in life, as in the capital markets. People always use their limited life experience and belief to explain cannot withstand a single blow unpredictable events; even calculating professionals, is not by random fool, what we should do is to follow the unknowable future. The mystery of the black swan The butterfly and the black swan both serve as a metaphor for the unpredictable future, but the opposite is true of the world. Let us first appreciate the difference The butterfly effect shows its mechanics more easily with a Western ballad: Lose a nail, broken shoe; Broken shoe, break a horse; A horse was broken and a knight was hurt; Hurt a knight and lost a fight; Lost a battle and killed an empire. Academically, the butterfly effect in chaos refers to the unpredictable consequences of the initial conditions in a nonlinear system, which can lead to a chain reaction. And the black swan effect? As Taleb said in the book black swan: Imagine, on the eve of those events in 1