户籍限制型人口流动的社会经济政治影响及对策研究-LSE.PPT

* In ProFamy model we have 9 variables in the model. * In ProFamy model we have 9 variables in the model. * * In ProFamy model we have 9 variables in the model. * In ProFamy model we have 9 variables in the model. * In ProFamy model we have 9 variables in the model. * In ProFamy model we have 9 variables in the model. * In ProFamy model we have 9 variables in the model. * In ProFamy model we have 9 variables in the model. * The headship-rate approach suffers serious shortcomings and has been criticized widely by demographers for more than a decade. The headship-rate method is, however, still widely used for household projection by the statistical offices and market analysis agencies, and thus deserves a detailed comparison to our new ProFamy method. There is no way to link the headship-rates to demographic rates; it is impossible to incorporate the projected or assumed propensity/timing of demographic processes into the headship rates ProFamy uses demographic rates as input for household projections, and thus facilitates analysis of the effects of changes in demographic rates on family household structure. As Morgan (2004b) indicated, for example, ProFamy provides a framework/tool to assess which of these demographic changes have affected family living arrangements most in the past decade or two. ProFamy also provides a framework/tool for assessing the likely impact of future changes. Thus, ProFamy allows one to rank the demographic components most responsible for recent changes in (and most likely to impact future) family living arrangements. * * Headship-Rate: One of the most problematic features of the headship-rate method is that it lumps all household members other than heads into one category “non-head” with no projected information (Burch, 1999). This makes it impossible to study family households, marital status and living arrangements of the elderly, adults, and children who are “non-head” and constitute the large majority of the populatio