广西秋季异常干旱的气候背景及其成因-自然灾害学报.pdf

17 5 Vo.l 17, No. 5 2008 10 JOURNAL OF NATURAL D ISASTERS O ct. , 2008 : 1004- 4574( 2008) 05- 101- 07 1, 2 1 李宇中 , 黎伟标 ( 1. , 510275; 2. , 530022) : 45, , : ; ; ENSO : ; ; ; ; ENSO; : P461 : A C lim atic background of abnorm al autum n drought in Guangxi and its cause of form ation 1, 2 1 L IYu-zhong , LIW e-i biao ( 1. Atmospheric Departm ent, Environm ental Science and Engineering College, SunYat-SenU niversity, Guangzhou 510275, China; 2. GuangxiM eteoro log ical Bureau, Nanning 530022, China) Abs tract: Th is paper uses synthesis, w avelet analysis and so on to conduct the clmi ate cond itions and characteristic analysis of the last 45a autumn precip itation, and discuss the possible causes and factors of the abnormal autumn drought in Guangx.i R esult indicates that the Asia continent subtrop ical h igh intensified abnorm ally maybe themain reason that causes severe autumn drought in Guangx.i There are two d istinct oscillations in the seasonal precipitat-i on tmi e seria.l The ENSO event as the representation of the thermal oscillation in trop ical Pacific Ocean, and the period icity of the solar activity is mi portant influence factors in these tw o kinds of oscillations. K ey w ord s: autumn drought; clmi atic background; cause of form ation; abrupt change; ENSO; sunspot 2003, 2004 , 10, 88() [ 1] , 7 , ; , ;