第四章基于OD反推模型预测客运通道客流量.pdfVIP

30 6 V ol . 30 No . 6 2 0 0 8 12 J OU R NA L OF T H E CH IN A RA ILW A Y SO CI ET Y Decembe 2008 : 1001- 8360( 2008) 06-0007- 06 基于OD 反推模型预测客运通道客流量 李夏苗, 黄桂章, 汤 杰 ( , 4 10075) : O D , , OD , O D , O D , OD / 0 O D , O D , , , , , , : O D ; ; : U 293. 13 : A Passenger Flow Forecasting Based on OD-matrix Estimation Model LI Xia-miao, H UA NG Gu-i zhang , T A NG J ie ( School of T af fic and T anspo t at ion En ginee ing, Cent al Sout h Unive sity , C han gsha 4 10075, China) Abstract: O igin dest inat io n ( OD) mat ices a e t he basic dat a in passenge f low f o ecast. It is ve y difficult to obtain OD mat ices in p act ical eng inee ing. People usually adopt OD su vey , but t his leads t o a t oo t ime-con- sum ing and t o ublesom e p ocess . T his pape p esents a m et hod using sect ion obse vat ion t o back- st ep OD ma- t ices di ectly w ithout OD su vey . T he elat ionship and diff e ence betw een t he t adit ional f ou- stag e method and OD m at ix est imat ion a e discussed. T he OD mat ices est im ation m odel st uctu ed by t he g av ity model on the basis of link passenge vo lum es is elabo at ed. T he model pa amete s a e solved by it e at io n and w it h the maxm um likelihood met ho d. Finally, the OD mat ix est imat io n m et hod is applied t o t he passenge f low fo ecast of t he Wu- Guang t anspo t co ido , ado pt ing t ial calculation t o simulat e t he g avity model pa amete s . T he esult show s t hat e o cont ol is efficient and t he p oposed met ho d is effect ive. Key words: OD mat ix est im at ion; passeng e f low f o ecast; g av ity mo del [