a mathematical framework for estimating pathogen transmission fitness and inoculum size using data from a competitive mixtures animal model估计病原体传播的数学框架健身和培养液大小使用数据从一个竞争混合物动物模型.pdfVIP

A Mathematical Framework for Estimating Pathogen Transmission Fitness and Inoculum Size Using Data from a Competitive Mixtures Animal Model 1,2 3 4 1,2 5 James M. McCaw *, Nimalan Arinaminpathy , Aeron C. Hurt , Jodie McVernon , Angela R. McLean 1Vaccine and Immunisation Research Group, Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Royal Children’s Hospital, Parkville, Victoria, Australia, 2 Melbourne School of Population Health, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, 3 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Ecology, Princeton University, New Jersey, United States of America, 4 WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, North Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, 5 Institute for Emerging Infections, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Oxford, United Kingdom Abstract We present a method to measure the relative transmissibility (‘‘transmission fitness’’) of one strain of a pathogen compared to another. The model is applied to data from ‘‘competitive mixtures’’ experiments in which animals are co-infected with a mixture of two strains. We observe the mixture in each animal over time and over multiple generations of transmission. We use data from influenza experiments in ferrets to demonstrate the approach. Assessment of the relative transmissibility between two strains of influenza is important in at least three contexts: 1) Within the human population antigenically novel strains of influenza arise and compete for susceptible hosts. 2) During a pandemic event, a novel sub-type of influenza competes with the existing seasonal strain(s). The unfolding epidemiological dynamics are dependent upon both the