a metapopulation model of tuberculosis transmission with a case study from high to low burden areasmetapopulation结核病传播模型与案例研究从高到低负担的地区.pdfVIP

A Metapopulation Model of Tuberculosis Transmission with a Case Study from High to Low Burden Areas 1,2 1 1 Roslyn I. Hickson *, Geoffry N. Mercer , Kamalini M. Lokuge 1 National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, 2 School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia Abstract Tuberculosis (TB) is a growing problem worldwide, especially with the emergence and high prevalence of multidrug- resistant strains. We develop a metapopulation model for TB spread, which is particularly suited to investigating transmission between areas of high and low prevalence. A case study of cross-border transmission in the Torres Strait region of Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) is considered and a sensitivity analysis is conducted. We find that only 6 of the 50 parameters analysed are important to the cumulative number of clinically active TB patients in the entire region. Of these, only the detection rate in PNG is found to be an important intervention parameter. We therefore give insight into the extent the area with the high burden of TB (PNG in the case study) is dominating the TB dynamics of the entire region. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis results give insight into the data that most important to collect and refine, which is found to be data relating to the PNG parameters. Citation: Hickson RI, Mercer GN, Lokuge KM (2012) A Metapopulation Model of Tuberculosis Transmission with a Case Study from High to Low Burden Areas. PLoS ONE 7(4): e34411. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0034411 Editor: Madhukar Pai, McGill University, Canada Received September 27, 2011; Accepted March 2, 2012; Published April