a new model using routinely available clinical parameters to predict significant liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis b新模式使用临床常规参数来预测显著在慢性乙型肝炎肝纤维化.pdfVIP

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a new model using routinely available clinical parameters to predict significant liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis b新模式使用临床常规参数来预测显著在慢性乙型肝炎肝纤维化.pdf

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a new model using routinely available clinical parameters to predict significant liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis b新模式使用临床常规参数来预测显著在慢性乙型肝炎肝纤维化

A New Model Using Routinely Available Clinical Parameters to Predict Significant Liver Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis B 1 2,3 1 4 5 1 Wai-Kay Seto , Chun-Fan Lee , Ching-Lung Lai , Philip P. C. Ip , Daniel Yee-Tak Fong , James Fung , 1 1 Danny Ka-Ho Wong , Man-Fung Yuen * 1 Department of Medicine, the University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, 2 Department of Biostatistics, Singapore Clinical Research Institute, Singapore, 3 Center for Quantitative Medicine, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore, 4 Department of Pathology, the University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, 5 Department of Nursing Studies, the University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong Abstract Objective: We developed a predictive model for significant fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) based on routinely available clinical parameters. ¨ Methods: 237 treatment-naıve CHB patients [58.4% hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive] who had undergone liver biopsy were randomly divided into two cohorts: training group (n = 108) and validation group (n = 129). Liver histology was assessed for fibrosis. All common demographics, viral serology, viral load and liver biochemistry were analyzed. Results: Based on 12 available clinical parameters (age, sex, HBeAg status, HBV DNA, platelet, albumin, bilirubin, ALT, AST, ALP, GGT and AFP), a model to predict significant liver fibrosis (Ishak fibrosis score $3) was derived using the five best parameters (age, ALP, AST, AFP and platelet). Using the formula log(index+ 1) = 0.025+0.0031(age)+0.1483 log(ALP)+0.004 log(AST)+0.0908 log(AFP+ 1)20.028 log(platelet), the PAPAS (P