a small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic一个小社区传染病的传播模型比较关闭学校的干预流感大流行的基于单独的模型.pdfVIP

A Small Community Model for the Transmission of Infectious Diseases: Comparison of School Closure as an Intervention in Individual-Based Models of an Influenza Pandemic 1 1 1,2,3 1 3 George J. Milne *, Joel K. Kelso , Heath A. Kelly , Simon T. Huband , Jodie McVernon 1 School of Computer Science and Software Engineering, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia, 2 Epidemiology Unit, Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, Carlton, Victoria, Australia, 3 School of Population Health, University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia Abstract Background: In the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. Method: We have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obtained from census collection datasets and precise simulation of household demographics, movement within the community and individual contact patterns. We modelled the spread of pandemic influenza in this community and the effect on daily and final attack rates of four social distancing measures: school closure, increased case isolation, workplace non-attendance and community contact reduction. We compared the modelled results of final attack rates in the absence of any interventions and the effect of school closure as a single intervention with other published individual based models of pandemic influenza in the developed world. Results: We showed that published individual based models estimate similar final attack rates over a range of values for R0 in a pandemic where no interventions have been implemented