基于GRAPES的陆—气双向反馈模式降水在洪水-中国气象局图书馆.PDF

气象科技 进展 基于GRAPES的陆—气双向反馈模式降水 在洪水预报中的检验 王莉莉 陈德辉 （国家气象中心，中国气象局，北京 100081） 摘要：选取前期已构建的基于GRAPES的陆—气双向反馈模式和陆—气单向反馈模式，尝试在洪水预报中利用流域水文 模型对数值预报模式降水分布进行检验。流域水文模型选取的是在我国洪水预报中已经得到广泛应用的新安江水文模 型。将双向反馈模式的预报降水驱动水文模型，进行洪水预报试验，与单向反馈模式预报结果进行比较。结果表明，双 向反馈模式对10cm土壤含水量模拟精度高于原模式，对降水的模拟也略好于原模式，而且利用水文模型对降水分布进 行检验的方法可以推广到站点稀疏或无资料地区。 关键词：降水检验，GRAPES模式，双向反馈，单向反馈，水文模型 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2015.02.008 Verification of Precipitation Prediction by Feedback Model Between Land Surface and Atmosphere Based on GRAPES in Flood Forecasting Wang Lili, Chen Dehui (National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081) Abstract: To verify the distribution of precipitation by flood forecast based on hydrological model, the feedback model between land surface and atmosphere based on GRAPES and GRAPES Meteorological-Hydrological coupled Model developed by the authors meteorological model are used. Xin’anjiang model which is used in this paper has already been widely applied in flood forecasting and hydrological simulation in China for a long term. The result of hydrological model driven by forecast datasets of GRAPES feedback model for flood forecasting is compared with the result of GRAPES Meteorological-Hydrological coupled Model. The experiment results show that the hydrological model can be used for verification of precipitation prediction. This method can be used in the ungauged region and the region with sparse meteorological stations. Keywords: precipitation verification, GRAPES, feedback, coupling, hydrological model 0 引言 于区域模式，可能会导致对土壤水分模拟的误差，反