应对国外技术性贸易措施的网络舆情监测体系的研究——以江苏为例.pdf

标准化与国际贸易 应对国外技术性贸易措施的网络舆情 监测体系的研究——以江苏为例 1 1 * 2 2 ■ 陈慧敏 刘 颖 杭伟梁 王曰芬 （1. 江苏省质量和标准化研究院 技术性贸易措施研究所；2. 南京理工大学 经济管理学院） 摘 要：本文基于舆情监测与预警的理论体系以及江苏出口贸易的特点，构建了江苏省应对国外技术性贸易措施的网络 舆情监测体系。该体系由宏观经济指标、贸易指标、技术指标和健康环境指标4个一级指标，以及目标市场GDP增长率、 卫生支出占GDP比重和市场通胀率等28个二级指标构成。同时，本文划分了技术性贸易措施的风险预警等级，经实证分析 有效。该项研究成果可直接应用于预测对外贸易风险，帮助政府和企业提前采取应对措施，减少因技术性贸易措施带来的 经济损失，服务于经济发展。 关键词： 技术性贸易措施 舆情监测 指标体系 DOI编码：10.3969/j.issn.1002-5944.2016.11.019 Research on Network Monitoring System of Coping with Technical Barriers to Trade in Jiangsu 1 1* 2 2 CHEN Hui-min LIU Ying HANG Wei-liang WANG Yue-fen 1. Research Center of Technical Barriers to Trade, Jiangsu institute of Quality and Standardization;2.School （ of EconomicsManagement, Nanjing University of Science and Technology） Abstract: Based on public sentiment monitoring alerting theory system, and the features of trade in Jiangsu, this paper established network monitoring system to cope with TBT. The system consists of 4 first grade indexes ， macroeconomic indicators, trade indicators, technical indicators and environmental health indicators and 28 secondary indexes such as the GDP growth rate of the target market market inflation rate and so on. And then this paper ， ， ， established the classification of risk forewarning of TBT, and the classification was improved effective by empirical analysis. The research results help government and enterprises to realize trade risk on time, reduce economic losses, take accordingly pr