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舟山渔场渔业资源动态解析-水产学报
26 5 Vol. 26, No. 5
2002 10 JOURNAL OF FISHERIES OF CHINA Oct. , 2002
: 1000- 0615( 2002) 05- 0428- 05
倪海儿, 陆杰华
( 1. , 315211; 2. , 100871)
: 1952- 2001,
, ARMA( q)
,
: ; ;
: S937. 3 :A
Dynamic analysis on fisheries resources in Zhoushan Fishing Ground
1 2
NI Hai-er , LU Jie-hua
( 1. Dep artment of Ocean and Fisheries , Ning bo Univ ersity , Ning bo 315211, China;
2. Institute of Pop u ation Research, B eji ing University , Beij ing 100871, China)
Abstract: Based on the investigation on the fluctuation of the catch and catch er unit effort ( CPUE) in
Zhoushan Fishing Ground during the eriod from 1952 to 2001, it is showed that the catch and CPUE can be
illustrated by determinacy tendency and stationary random sequence. Combining the determinacy tendency models
w ith ARMA( q) models, the com lex models were built to describe the dynamics of fisheries resources. The
stages of the fisheries resources fluctuation were divided. The utilization extent of fisheries resources was
discussed and the fisheries managing measures were ro ounded.
Key words: Zhoushan Fishing Ground; fisheries resources; stationary random sequence
4 2
2930~ 3100, 12130~ 12500, 5. 3 10 km ,
20 70 , ,
, ,
1
[ 1] [2, 3]
1952- 2001
: 2002-05-21
: MacArthur ( 00- 65430)
: ( 1958- ) ,
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