虚拟水在解决北京水资源短缺中的作用研究-水世界.DOC

虚拟水理论对北京水务政策研究的启示 柳文华1*，赵景柱2，邓红兵2，李其军1，马东春1 (1北京市水利科学研究所；2中国科学院生态环境研究中心) 摘 要：本文从虚拟水定义入手，分析了虚拟水理论的内涵与意义，综述了国际上虚拟水计算方法。在此基础上，分析了北京市水资源变化趋势，在资源性缺水的前提下，降水和入境水减少加剧了用水紧张。应用虚拟水理论，本文计算了北京市的粮食贸易量，并估算出1995-2002年间几种农产品虚拟水输出/入量。结果显示，2000-2002年北京市主要是虚拟水输出，其中以2001年输出44.65亿m3最多，是南水北调入京水量的4倍多。1995-1999年间则是输入虚拟水，以1999年输入33.31亿m3为最高量。因此，减少北京虚拟水对外输出，进行更多的虚拟水输入是解决北京水资源短缺的途径之，并可作为水务管理和政策制定参考。 关键词：虚拟水，水资源，北京，水务政策，粮食贸易 Revelation of virtual water theory to water policy study in Beijing Liu Wenhua1, Zhao Jingzhu2, Deng Hongbing2, Li Qijun1, Ma Dongchun1 (1Beijing Hydraulic Research Institute; 2 Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences) Abstract：Virtual water concept was introduced in this paper, its connotation and significance was analyzed, and accumulation methods were reviewed. Based of those, water resources trends was analyzed in Beijing. Precipitation and alien water decreasing aggravated water stress on the premise of natural scarcity of water resources. Applied virtual water theory, food trade quantity in Beijing was accumulated and virtual water output or input quantities of several agricultural products during 1995-2002 were evaluated. The results showed that virtual water was output during 2000-2002, in which the most water of 4.465 billion cubic meters in 2001 was exported four times as transfer quantity of South-North Water Transfer Project supplying Beijing. During 1995-1999, virtual water was imported, in which the most water of 3.331 billion cubic meters was imported. To reduce virtual water export and more import is one way to resolve water scarcity in Beijing, and was referenced in water management and policy-making. Keywords: Virtual water; Water resources; Beijing; Water policy; Food trade 水资源问题已经成为全球性热点之一，水资源不足和如何解决是各国政策和研究学者探讨的共同课题。在此背景下，虚拟水理论应运而生，并被迅速广泛应用于水资源管理与水务政策研究中。 1虚拟水定义 虚拟水（virtual water）概念由Tony Allan教授于1993年提出，是指包含在粮食作物贸易中的水，因为粮食的生产需要消耗水资源，粮食贸易的同时隐含着水资源交易，因为这一部分水不是有形存在的，因而被称之为虚拟水（Allan，1998＆1999）。虚拟水概念的最初是Allan教授提出的“embedde