短期产品中断管理策略-Disruption-management_strategies_for_short_life-cycle_products1.pdf

Disruption-Management Strategies for Short Life-Cycle Products Brian Tomlin Kenan-Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599 Received 9 July 2007; revised 1 December 2008; accepted 6 December 2008 DOI 10.1002/nav.20344 Published online 18 March 2009 in Wiley InterScience (). Abstract: Supplier diversification, contingent sourcing, and demand switching (whereby a firm shifts customers to a different product if their preferred product is unavailable), are key building blocks of a disruption-management strategy for firms that sell multiple products over a single season. In this article, we evaluate 12 possible disruption-management strategies (combinations of the basic building-block tactics) in the context of a two-product newsvendor. We investigate the influence of nine attributes of the firm, its supplier(s), and its products on the firm’s preference for the various strategies. These attributes include supplier reliability, supplier failure correlation, payment responsibility in the event of a supply failure, product contribution margin, product substi- tutability, demand uncertainties and correlation, and the decision maker’s risk aversion. Our results show that contingent sourcing is preferred to supplier diversification as the supply risk (failure probability) increases, but diversification is preferred to contingent sourcing as the demand risk (demand uncertainty) increases. We find that demand switching is not effective at managing supply risk if the products are sourced from the same set of suppliers. Demand switching is effective at managing demand risk and so can be preferred to the other tactics if supply risk is low. Risk aversion makes con