基于相空间重构的西太平洋副高指数的动力随机性与复杂性Dynamic.PDF

30 6 V o.l 30 N o. 6 2007 12 Journa l o f N anjing In st itute o fM eteoro logy D ec. 2007 1, 2 1, 2 1 1 1 张韧 , 王辉赞 , 刘科峰, 洪梅, 余丹丹 ( 1. , 2 1110 1; 2. , 2 10044) : 基于NCEP /NCAR 再分析资料, 计算了西太平洋副热带高压脊线指数的逐候时间序列, 对 时间序列进行了相空间重构, 对相空间重构中最佳嵌入维数和延迟时间的选择进行了分析, 画出了 相应的伪相图, 同时还对副高脊线指数吸引子的关联维数进行了计算, 得到副高脊线指数关联维数 为 3. 10 0. 05通过动力参数的计算和重构后相空间递归图的分析, 讨论了副高活动的动力随机 性和复杂性分析结果对副高系统复杂性和可预报性的认识以及副高动力模型反演有参考意义 : 副高脊线指数 相空间重构 关联维数 递归图 伪相图 : P433 : A : 1000-2022( 2007) 06-0723-07 Dynam ic Random icity and Complexity of Subtropic H igh Index Ba ed on Pha e Space Recon truction 1, 2 1, 2 1 1 1 ZHANG R en , W ANG H u i-zan , L I U K e-feng , HONG M e i, YU Dan-d an ( 1. Inst itute of M eteoro logy, PLA U n iv ersity of Science and T echnology, N an jing 2 1110 1, Ch ina 2. Jiang su K ey L aboratory ofM eteorological D isaster, NU IST, N an j ing 2 10044, Ch ina) Ab tract: B ased on the NCEP /N CAR reana lysis data, the p entad t mi e ser ies of the w estern P ac ific sub- trop ic h igh ridge index is calcu lated the tmi e series is analyzed by the phase sp ace recon stru ction tech- n iqu e, and during the course o f phase sp ace con stru ction, the optmi a l delay tmi e and em bedding dmi en- sion of ph ase space is d iscu ssed and determ ined, and the counterfeit ph ase plot is also g iven then the cor- re lation dmi ension o f subtrop ic h igh ridge index series is ca lculated, to be 3. 10 0. 05. A ccording to the com putation o f dynam ic p aram eters and the ana lys