基于蒙特卡罗法地测量不确定度评定.pdfVIP

第 25 卷 第 4 期 电子测量与仪器学报 Vol. 25 No. 4 2011 年 4 月 JOURNAL OF ELECTRONIC MEASUREMENT AND INSTRUMENT · 301 · DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1187.2011.00301 基于蒙特卡罗法的测量不确定度评定 陈怀艳 曹 芸 韩 洁 (北京航天飞行控制中心, 北京 100094) 摘 要: 当采用不确定度传递律进行测量不确定度评定(GUM 方法)有困难或不方便时, 蒙特卡罗法是实用的替代方法。在 建立数学模型、设定输入量概率密度函数的基础上, 通过对概率分布随机采样进行分布传递, 确定输出量的概率密度函数, 从而 得到输出量的估计值、标准不确定度以及在指定包含概率下的包含区间, 实现对测量不确定度的评定。通过小功率座校准因子 测量不确定度评定示例, 说明了采用蒙特卡罗法进行测量不确定度评定的实现方法, 并与 GUM 方法进行了比较。 关键词: 蒙特卡罗法；传递概率分布；测量不确定度；评定 中图分类号: TB9 文献标识码: A 国家标准学科分类代码: 410.55 Evaluation of uncertainty in measurement based on a Monte Carlo method Chen Huaiyan Cao Yun Han Jie (Beijing Aerospace Control Center, Beijing 100094, China) Abstract: When it is difficult to apply the GUM uncertainty framework that uses the law of propagation of uncer- tainty to evaluate uncertainty in measurement, the Monte Carlo Method (MCM) is a practical alternative. Evaluating uncertainty in measurement is to be achieved by modeling the measurement, assigning probability density functions for input quantities, performing random sampling from probability distribution, obtaining probability density function for output quantity, and then obtaining an estimate of the output quantity, the standard uncertainty associated to this esti- mate, and a coverage interval for that quantity with a specified probability. The example evaluating uncertainty in measurement for calibration factor of power sensor illustrates various aspects of MCM and the comparison with GUM. Keywords: Monte Carlo method (MCM); propagation of distributions; uncertainty in measurement; evaluation 1 引 言 不确定度》的内容越来越丰富, 在 GUM 方法的基础