利率管制与总需求结构失衡2013-09-25.pdf

利率管制与总需求结构失衡 内容提要：本文构建了一个含有异质性生产效率冲击与融资约束的动态一般均衡模型，通过引入“扭 曲税”来刻画利率管制，用来研究利率管制对总需求结构失衡的影响，以及利率市场化改革的宏观经济效 应。研究发现，利率管制能够扩大投资、挤压消费，而融资约束强化了利率管制对投资和消费的作用效果， 因此利率管制加剧了总需求结构失衡程度。如果进行利率市场化改革，家庭可支配收入会增加，居民部门 消费占 GDP 的比重能够提高4.7 个百分点，总需求结构有所改善。但是，利率市场化之后贷款利率会提高 25.4% ，全社会投资规模将因为资金成本上升而大幅萎缩，并且融资约束的存在使得资本配置效率无法通过 利率市场化而显著改善，两方面作用最终将使总产出下降 7.2% 。由于目前中国经济和社会对产出下降的承 受力较低，利率市场化改革不宜过于激进，而应该继续稳步推进。 关键词：利率管制 融资约束 经济增长 总需求结构失衡 利率市场化 Interest Rate Control and the Imbalance of Aggregate Demand Structure a a b Chen Yanbin , Chen Xiaoliang and Chen Weize (a: School of Economics, Renmin University of China; b: School of Economics, Boston University) Abstract: In order to study effects of interest rate control on the imbalance of aggregate demand structure, this paper introduces interest rate control depicted by “distorting tax” into a dynamic general equilibrium model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks and financial constraints. The result implies that interest rate control accounts for the imbalance of aggregate demand structure by enlarging investment scale and squeezing out consumption. Moreover financial constraints reduce efficiency of capital reallocation, and therefore exacerbate the effects of interest rate control on the imbalance of aggregate demand structure. The reform of interest rate liberalization could increase households’ disposable income, and therefore incline consumption-GDP ratio by 4.7 base-points, which benefits rebalancing of aggregate demand structure. But the liberalization leads to a sharp rise of interest rate by 25.4%, and therefore investment scale slumps due to an upturn of capital cost while capital misallocation remains severe because of financial friction, and