高速铁路客运需求调查与预测.pdf

高速铁路客运需求调查与预测 摘 要 我国高速铁路建设正进入高峰期，导致高速铁路的客运需求呈现多样化。影 响高铁客运需求的因素很多，人口众多，经济的不断发展，富裕人群的扩大，城 市化进程的加快等是刺激高速铁路客运需求的重要因素。为了更好地了解运输市 场的需求波动情况，结合既有的运能，制定更合理的运输组织方案及营销策略， 更好满足旅客的运输需求，就需要对高速铁路客运需求进行调查与预测。 一直以来，由于客运需求的不确定性，难以选择既有的预测方法对未来的客 运需求量进行预测。对于适用的预测方法的探讨是本文论述的重点内容。本文在 分析影响高速铁路客运需求的直接因素与间接因素的基础上，建立基于灰色关联 度分析的回归预测模型。即利用灰色关联度分析，求出各影响因素与客运需求之 间的关联度，进而得出影响高速铁路客运需求的主要因素。之后建立以各主要因 素为自变量，以客运需求为因变量的多元回归方程，并利用Excel 数据分析工具 对方程参数进行求解。最后以哈大高铁的大连北站为实例，建立出能够预测大连 北站未来客运需求的回归预测模型，为改善运输组织和提高服务质量提供了依 据。 关键词： 高铁客运需求 客运需求调查与预测 灰色关联度分析 回归预测模型 ABSTRACT Our high-speed railway construction is entering the peak period，resulting in high-speed railway passenger demand diversified 。There are many factors which affect the high-speed passenger demand，such as the large population ，the economy continues to develop ，the rich people is expending and the acceleration of urbanization process ，all of these are the important factors in stimulating demand for high-speed passenger rail 。In order to better understand the needs of the transport market fluctuations ，combined with the existing transport capacity，the development of a more rational organization of transport solutions and marketing strategies to better meet the transportation needs of travelers ，we need high-speed rail passenger demand for investigation and prediction 。 For a long time ，as passenger demand uncertainty，it is difficult to select an existing prediction methods to predict future demand for passenger 。As to the discussion of applicable forecasting methods is the key content of this paper 。Based on the analysis of the direct factors and the indirect factors affecting demand