中国宏观经济分析与预测2_011_2012.pdf

MACROECONOMY 宏观经济 中国宏观经济分析与预测：2011~2012* Analyze and Forecast on China ’s Macroeconomy from 2011 to 2012 中国人民大学中国宏观经济分析与预测课题组** 内容提要 2011 年，在“全球经济复苏受阻”、“ 国际资本流动变异”、“ 国内各种刺激政策全面回收”、“货币政策回调” 以及“房地产调控政策全面加码”等多重因素的作用下，中国宏观经济复苏的步伐放缓，呈现出“经济增速逐季回落”、 “通胀压力高位回缓”、“经济泡沫逆转”、“资源错配加剧”、“金融风险上扬”与“结构刚性持续” 的局面。 2012 年，中国 宏观经济一方面将延续2011 年的发展趋势，另一方面也将面临欧洲主权债务危机的深度调整、中国房地产市场的全 面逆转以及中国宏观经济政策转向等因素冲击，呈现出“前低后稳”的发展态势。 进而跟进 条政策建议。 9 关键词 世界经济 欧债危机 通货膨胀 房地产业 宏观经济政策 The Academic Group in Renmin University of China Analyzing and Forecasting on China ’s Macroeconomy ’ Abstract: The recovery of China s macroeconomy has slown down in the year of 2011, because of the hinder of global economic recovery, variation of international capital flows, cancelling of all kinds of active polices at home, ’ monetary policy callback, overall implementing of controlling policies on real estate.China s macroeconomy has assumed a new aspect, as the growthing speed has slown down every season, pressure of inflation has relaxed in high level, the economic bubble has reversed, resources allocation error has instenfied,the financial risks has risen and the structure is rigid. In 2012, the economy of China will continue the status of 2011,and then will be steady with the deep adjusting of European debt crisis, the overall recovery of Chinese real estate, and the changing of macroeconomic policies, and it will never appear second bottom. Key words: global economy, European debt crisis, inflation, reversal of real estate, changing of macroeconomic policies 导言：总体判断与预测 2011 年，在“全球经济复苏受阻”、“ 国际资本流动变异”、“ 国内各种刺激政