基于风险评价的断路器检修决策研究.pdfVIP

第 38 卷 第 15 期 电力系统保护与控制 Vol.38 No.15 2010 年 8 月 1 日 Power System Protection and Control Aug. 1, 2010 基于风险评估的断路器检修决策研究 鲁宗相，吴林林 （电力系统国家重点实验室清华大学电机系，北京 100084） 摘要：在系统风险评估与主接线可靠性评估相结合的基础上，将风险理论应用于断路器检修中。分别从潮流越限、电压越限、 电压失稳及连锁故障四个方面对系统风险进行量化，得到元件量化的风险指标。通过最小路集/割集分析，建立断路器与线 路、变压器的关联关系，将断路器故障造成的系统后果由其关联的设备系统严重度的增加来表示。在风险决策中引入了维修 成本和维修收益的概念，使得决策更加科学量化。通过算例系统证明了所提算法的合理性。 关键词: 断路器；风险评估；最小路集/割集；基于风险的维修 Risk assessment based maintenance technology for breaker LU Zong-xiang, WU Lin-lin (State Key Lab of Power Systems, Dept of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 ，China) Abstract: The risk theory is applied to the maintenance decision of high voltage breakers, based on the compositive application of system risk assessment and bus systems arrangement reliability evaluation. The system risk index is quantified from four aspects: overload, out limited voltage, voltage instability, and cascading overload. Using the minimal cut set/ minimal path set analysis method ，this paper establishes the correlation of the breakers and their related lines or transformers. So system consequence of breakers outage can be presented by the increase of severity of their related equipments. The maintenance cost and maintenance benefit concepts are introduced in the risk decision-making. Finally ，the proposed method is validated by a sample system. Key words: breaker; risk assessment; minimal path setl cut set; risk based maintenance 中图分类号： TM71 文献标识码：A 文章编号： 1674-3415(2010)15-0047-06 的研究对象多集中于变压器、线路等设备，对断路 0 引言 器故障造成的系统风险研究较少。而且风险分析或