公开课总结版 金融市场 希勒_21523.docx

金融原理 Lecture 1efficient markets有效市场So this merry band of financial theory professors didnt reallybelieve in regulation.所以这批开心的金融理论教授并不真正认同（对市场的）管制They believed markets left unfettered worked best of all.他们认为不受约束的市场是最优的They believed in what they called efficient markets and theidea that asset prices reflect all the available possible information.他们坚信所谓的有效市以及资产价格反映了所有可获得信息So an implication of that is thatif you want to find out whether a companys doing well or notyou dont have to take the trouble to read all their financial reportsjust look at their stock price.If you wanted to know whether a countrys doing well or not youdont have to study its entire political system and currentevents, just look at the general stockmarket of the country and thatll tell you.They believed that you could make as good returns in themarket as a lay person as you could as an expert because allthe experts were competing to try and get the best possibleprice, and so the price itselfreflected all their knowledge and wisdom and opinions and sothe lay person could take advantage of that by buying stocks.Everybody should be an investor, they felt.So, a critical part of their theory was that the markets wereso efficient, driven by people like them who are competing to exploit every advantageand therefore compete away every advantageand by doing that put all the information they have into the prices.The implication of that theory is that theres anextraordinarily clever way of computing the value of mostinvestment assets, and about deciding when afinancial decisions a good thing to do or notand that was the heart of what they taught in these businessschools, these algorithms for valuing assets and making optimal financial decisions.这个理论意味着存在一种极其巧妙的方法能计算大部分投资资产的价值和判断金融决策在何时更为恰当这就是他们在商学院所教课程的核心包括资产评估算法和最优金融决策算法So as you know Shiller has been very critical of the businessefficient markets tradition.He feels that these finance professors left somethingessential out of the whole story.What they left out