中金公司银行业2004年投资策略.ppt

中国国际金融有限公司 范艳瑾 2004 年3月 经营模式从“规模扩张”到“盈利质量”的转变 关于A股银行估值的讨论 影响银行股的近期因素 投资建议 欢迎提问！ Thank you for giving me the chance to talk with you about China’s banking industry. As you may know, China’s banking sector is highly concentrated; Four big state-owned banks dominate the market. But they are saddled with NPLs, make marginal profits, and lack core competency. It would take another 2-3 years for them to streamline their operation and sharpen their competitive edge. However, smaller players, joint-equity commercial banks, will be another story. They are fast growth, profit-oriented, commercial entities in the interests of shareholders. Now they are looking for equity markets to raise capital for further expansion. We think this will offer investors new opportunities to share the growth of China’s banking industry. We believe some well-run joint-equity banks will stand out from the competition during the expansion. So, our analysis is conducted with a focus on joint-equity banks. We hope to give you a picture of the more commercialized part of China’s banking sector. The current banking system is the result of a serial banking reform that started in the early 1990’s. Three policy banks were established to assume policy lending capacity from the four state-owned banks in order to enable them to operate as real commercial entities. Meanwhile, competition was introduced among domestic financial institutions to speed up the overall banking reform. Joint-equity banks, incorporated by local governments or large state-owned enterprises, gradually built up their client base in regional markets. There are now 10 nationwide joint-equity banks and 90 city commercial banks which were formerly urban cooperatives. [跟两页前一模一样] The current banking system is the result of a serial banking reform that started in the early 1990’s. Three policy banks were established to assume policy lending capacity from the four state-owned banks in order to enable them to operate a