土地储备方案的投资决策风险评估.pdf

Statistical and Application 统计学与应用, 2014, 3, 85-90 Published Online June 2014 in Hans. /journal/sa /10.12677/sa.2014.32012 Investment Decision-Making Risk Assessments of Land Bank Program 1 1 2 Guoyu Zhang , Dongxue Zhou , Moyi Zhang 1 School of Mathematical Sciences, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot 2 School of Computer Science-School of Software Engineering, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot Email: zgy1824716@163.com, 1144033411@, 2277939035@ th th th Received: May 8 , 2014; revised: Jun. 10 , 2014; accepted: Jun. 16 , 2014 Copyright © 2014 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract In view of the decision risk of land reserve investment, an evaluation index is built in this thesis, and the Q value which indicates the level of risk is calculated, so as to achieve the purpose of as- sessing the risks of land reserves. Based on actual data, six main factors affecting the investment risk are determined after analysis. With the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the risk index weights are identified, and the greater weight index impacts a greater degree of risk. How- ever, the judgment matrix in traditional AHP often contains certain subjective factors. The judg- ment matrix is determined by analyzing the proximity matrix, using SPSS (R) clustering analysis in the process. This method avoids subjective factors caused by 1-9 scaling method which is pro- posed by Thomas Setiawan (T.L. Saaty), and improves the efficiency of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Finally, a s