人民币汇率制度演变现状及前瞻.doc

摘??要人民币汇率问题已成为当前舆论关注的焦点。本文通过阐述人民币汇率制度的演变，得出了人民币汇率制度改革的方向是市场化和可自由兑换。接着详细地分析了人民币汇率制度现状及内在缺陷，指出人民币汇率实质是钉住美元的汇率体制。然后重点剖析了人民币汇率供求机制的不对称性及人民币升值压力的制度性因素。因此，改进人民币汇率供求机制中的非对称性应是纾缓人民币升值压力的有效举措。中长期看来，人民币汇率变动贬值压力也不可低估。笔者认为，就长远目标而言，汇率的完全由市场决定是最有效的汇率安排，人民币可自由兑换和国际化应是汇率制度改革的最终方向和目标。关键词：人民币汇率制度,汇率目标区，经济全球化????????????????Developments?current?situation?and?prospect?that?the?exchange?rate?system?of?RMBAbstract????The?exchange?rate?question?of?RMB?has?already?become?the?focus?that?the?public?opinion?pay?close?attention?to?at?present.?This?text?is?through?explaining?the?development?of?the?exchange?rate?system?of?RMB,?the?direction?of?drawing?the?exchange?rate?system?reform?of?RMB?is?the?marketization?and?free?convertible.?Then?has?analysed?the?exchange?rate?system?current?situation?of?RMB?and?inherent?defect?in?detail?,?point?out?the?exchange?rate?essence?of?RMB?is?an?exchange?rate?system?of?pegging?to?dollar.?Then?analyzed?the?unsymmetry?of?the?exchange?rate?supply?and?demand?mechanism?of?RMB?and?institutional?factor?of?the?appreciation?pressure?of?RMB?especially.?So?improve?RMB?exchange?rate?asymmetry?,?supply?and?demand?of?mechanism?should??slow?RMB?effective?action?,?appreciation?of?pressure.?It?seems?in?midium?or?long?term?that?the?pressure?is?incomparable?too?that?the?exchange?rate?change?of?RMB?devalues.?I?think?,?as?regards?long-range?objective?,?totally?the?market?determine?it?is?the?most?effective?exchange?rate?that?arranges?in?exchange?rate,?RMB?can?be?converted?freely?and?the?internationalization?should?be?final?direction??Key?words:?The?exchange?rate?system?of?RMB,?the?exchange?rate?goal?area,?economic?globalization??????????????????????????????目?录1绪论…………………………………………………………………………………………11.1课题背景及目的?………………………………………………………………………1??1.2国内外研究状况??……………………………………………………………………1??1.3?论文构成及研究内容?…………………………………………………………………22人民币汇率制度历史回顾…………………………………………………………………32.1新中国成立到改革开放前的人民币汇率制度……………………………………32.1.1管理浮动制阶段?（1949—1952年）…………………………………………32.1.2从盯住美元到盯住一篮子货币…………………………………