03财务报告的决策有用性.ppt

* * 31 30 30 Then the outcome - feedback/confirmatory information = part (b). Not that defn. also mentions accountability. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 03The Decision Usefulness Approach to Financial Reporting * Example, con’t Assume the investor uses expected monetary value as a decision criterion (EMV) EMV (a1): (.05)(-1000) + 0 + .25(8000) = 1950 EMV (a2): (.05)(1000) + .70(1000) +.25 (1000) = 1000 Therefore, if investor acts now, should take a1. But: May be worthwhile to secure additional information. * 03The Decision Usefulness Approach to Financial Reporting * Decision Problem Think of the financial statements of X Ltd. as an information system conveying information about probabilities of θ. Assume the financial statements will give one of the following 3 mutually exclusive messages: * 03The Decision Usefulness Approach to Financial Reporting * Bayes Theorem (Rule) The basic principle of Bayes Theorem is that additional information can change a decision maker’s prior beliefs about the occurrence of an event * 03The Decision Usefulness Approach to Financial Reporting * Decision Problem, Cont. The information system can be characterized by the following table: P(θ) P(m1/θ) P(m2/θ) P(m3/θ) θ1 P(θ1) = .05 .75 .20 .05 θ2 P(θ2) = .70 .50 .30 .20 θ3 P(θ3) = .25 .10 .20 .70 These conditional probabilities, or likelihoods, are the probabilities of receiving the various messages conditional on each state being true. * 03The Decision Usefulness Approach to Financial Reporting * Decision Problem, Cont. Now, for any message, the decision maker can revise his/her prior probabilities using Bayes’ Theorem. Suppose that m1 was received from the financial statements. =P(m1)=.05×.75+.70×.5+.25×.10=.4125 =.85 =.06 1.00 Then: Similarly: * 03The Decision Usefulness Approach to Financial Reporting * Decision Problem, Cont. Note the EMV of each act is So if m1 were received act a2 would be chosen. * 03The Decision Usefulness Approach to Financial Reporting * Decision Probl