中国主要果蔬消费量预测.pdf

农业消费展望 中国主要果蔬消费量预测 霍露萍 （新疆财经大学经济学院 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830012 ） 摘 要： 主要采用消费总量预测法和趋势外推预测法预测水果消费量的趋势。 结果显示， 这两种方法所得到的消 费量的趋势一致， 数据基本吻合。 中国居民对水果消费的趋势是递增的， 即随着时间的推移， 中国居民的水果消费量 越来越多。 创新性地采用变象移动加权平均法对蔬菜消费量的趋势进行预测， 通过会计中商品成本的计算方法近似地 对蔬菜的未来消费进行确权， 再根据权重进行预测。 预测结果显示， 中国居民蔬菜消费的总体趋势是增加的， 但是增 长速度较慢。 关键词： 水果； 蔬菜； 消费量； 预测； 趋势外推预测法； 变象移动加权平均法 Forecast on Chinas Main Fruit and Vegetable Consumption Huo Luping （Economic School of Xinjiang Financial and Economic University, Urumqi 830012, Xinjiang ） Abstract ： This paper forecasted the trend of fruit consumption quantity mainly using the consumption forecast method and trend extrapolation prediction method. According to the results of these two methods, the author found that the data and trends of consumption were consistent. The trend of Chinas residents fruit consumption increased gradually, namely the consumption of fruit would become more and more as time went on. Then the author innovatively predicted the vegetable consumption using moving weighted average method, based on the calculation method of cost accounting in goods, made the right to do the future consumption of vegetable, and made predictions of consumption on the basis of the weight. The forecasts showed that the overall trend of Chinas residents vegetable consumption would increase, but the increase of consumption would slow down. Key words ： fruit; vegetable; consumption; prediction; trend extrapolation prediction method; moving weighted average method 对水果和蔬菜的消费量未来将会出现一种新的趋势。 0 引言 我国是一个农