中国南方暴雨日数的气候变化特征.pdf

Climate Change Research Letters 气候变化研究快报, 2015, 4(4), 228-236 Published Online October 2015 in Hans. /journal/ccrl /10.12677/ccrl.2015.44026 Climate Change Characteristics of Rainstorm Days in South China 1,2 2 2 2 Shaoyong Chen , Xiaofen Zhang , Junrui Guo , Yuzhen Guo 1 Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou Gansu 2 Meteorological Bureau of Baiyin, Baiyin Gansu Email: csy505@126.com nd rd th Received: Oct. 2 , 2015; accepted: Oct. 23 , 2015; published: Oct. 26 , 2015 Copyright © 2015 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract Using the day by day precipitation data at 225 stations in the south area of China in the period of 1961-2010, with the trend analysis, Monte Carlo test method, the sliding T test, Mann-Kendall, etc., the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rainfall day and evolution rule above rainstorm in the south of China for 50 years are analyzed. Results show that the Southern China, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and the Chengdu Plain are relatively more rains- torm areas. Rainstorm day trend is not significant in most areas; there is a slight increase in the east and a slight decrease in the west. But rainstorm days have significantly reduced in Chengdu Plain. There was a remarkable mutation in