全球能源形势展望： 战略挑战.ppt

全球能源形势展望：战略挑战 首席经济学家，法提赫.比罗尔博士 经济分析部主管 全球主要能源需求 挑战一：能源供应安全 按地区划分的全球主要能源产量增长 全球已探明的油气储量 OECD 国家不同领域石油需求的增长，1999－2004 年 基本石油需求的增长，2004－2030 年 全球运输业的石油需求 中国石油供应的平衡性 全球石油累计投资，2004－2030 年 World Light Oil Product Demand and Average Crude Oil Quality 挑战二：二氧化碳排放 与能源相关的全球二氧化碳排放 二氧化碳排量的增长，2004－2030 年 全球能源需求与二氧化碳排量的增长 挑战三：能源与贫困 电力缺乏 发展中国家的家庭能源使用 全球能源政策选择 全球能源政策选择 G8 领导人在 Gleneagles 批准 采用相应政策措施后，2030 年全球石油需求相对于参照系的比较情况 采取政策措施后 OECD 国家二氧化碳排量相对于参照系的比较情况 2004 年到 2030 年间有利于降低二氧化碳排量的因素 采取政策措施后电力投资与参照系的情况比较，2004 － 2030 年 结束语 就目前的能源政策而言，在对市场发展趋势进行预计时，我们认为问题很严峻。 能源供应问题的影响增加 二氧化碳的排量上升 持续的能源贫困 需要政府尽快采取坚决措施 政府可采取一系列关键有效的政策选择措施，包括提高能源使用效率，加大核能、清洁煤矿、可再生能源的使用份额，并推广先进的能源技术等。 I will begin by looking at global energy trends. Please note that we based this analysis on a Reference Case Scenario – in other words, we assumed that current policies that were in place in mid-2004 remain in place and do not change. And no additional policies are adopted. I will begin by looking at global energy trends. Please note that we based this analysis on a Reference Case Scenario – in other words, we assumed that current policies that were in place in mid-2004 remain in place and do not change. And no additional policies are adopted. I will begin by looking at global energy trends. Please note that we based this analysis on a Reference Case Scenario – in other words, we assumed that current policies that were in place in mid-2004 remain in place and do not change. And no additional policies are adopted. Global oil product mix CHALLENGE Medium-sour and heavy-sour grades increase significantly: 80% of known reserves are in heavy-sour regions Counter to: Reduction in world-wide fuel-oil demand World-wide move to clean fuels Driver for fuel oil conversion investments Potential driver for continuing light-sweet price premium Despite the much faster rate of growth, per capita demand for transport oil will remain much lower in developing countries than