利用Excel进行统计分析-Chapter17-Decision Making.ppt

Statistics for ManagersUsing Microsoft? Excel 5th Edition Chapter 17 Decision Making Learning Objectives In this chapter, you learn: To use payoff tables and decision trees to evaluate alternative courses of action To use several criteria to select an alternative course of action To use Bayes’ theorem to revise probabilities in light of sample information About the concept of utility Steps in Decision Making List Alternative Courses of Action Choices or actions List Uncertain Events Possible events or outcomes Determine ‘Payoffs’ Associate a Payoff with Each Event/Outcome combination Adopt Decision Criteria Evaluate Criteria for Selecting the Best Course of Action Payoff Table A payoff table shows alternatives, states of nature, and payoffs Decision Tree Opportunity Loss Opportunity Loss Decision Criteria Expected Monetary Value (EMV) The expected profit for taking action Aj Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) The expected opportunity loss for taking action Aj Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) The expected opportunity loss from the best decision Expected Monetary Value The expected monetary value is the weighted average payoff, given specified probabilities for each event Expected Monetary Value The expected value is the weighted average payoff, given specified probabilities for each event Expected Monetary Value Example: EMV (Average factory) = 90(.3) + 120(.5) + (-30)(.2) = 81 Expected Opportunity Loss The expected opportunity loss is the weighted average loss, given specified probabilities for each event Expected Opportunity Loss Example: EOL (Large factory) = 0(.3) + 70(.5) + (140)(.2) = 63 Value of Information Expected Value of Perfect Information, EVPI Expected Value of Perfect Information EVPI = Expected profit under certainty – expected monetary value of the best alternative EVPI is equal to the expected opportunity loss from the best decision Expected Profit Under Certainty Expected profit under certainty = expected value of the