中国综合症 The China Syndrome.doc

中国综合症 The China Syndrome Five reasons why the U.S. can stay ahead of the Middle Kingdom. ?? 中国综合征 为何美国能够领先中国的五个原因。 ?? Chinas ascension to the worlds second-largest economy, surpassing Japan, has led to predictions that it will inevitably snatch the No. 1 spot from the United States. Nomura Securities envisions China surpassing the U.S. total GDP in little more than a decade. And economist Robert Fogel predicts that by 2050 Chinas economy will account for 40% of the worlds GDP, with the U.S. share shrinking to a measly 14%. 中国超越日本成为了世界第二大经济体，并将在可预测的时间内不可避免的与美国争夺榜首的席位。野村证卷预测中国国民生产总值将在十年内超越美国。经济学家罗伯特福格尔认为，到2050年中国经济总量所占分额将占到全球经济的40%,而与之相对的是美国经济将萎缩到可怜的14%。? Americans indeed should worry about the prospect of slipping status, but the idée fixe about Chinas inevitable hegemony--like Japans two decades ago--could prove greatly exaggerated. Countries generally do not experience hyper-growth--the starting point for many predictions--for long. Eventually costs rise, internal pressures grow and natural limitations brake and can even throw the economy into reverse. 美国人的确应该担心下滑的国际地位的前景，但对中国未来霸权的担忧—就像对20年前的日本一样—可能有些言过其实。国家一般不会出现高速增长—许多对未来的长期预测都会最终导致成本上升，内部压力增大，造成发展减速，甚至会因为自身条件的天生缺陷而发生经济倒车。? Instead the U.S. has a decent chance of remaining the worlds pre-eminent economy not only over the next decade or two and even by mid-century. There are five key reasons for this contrarian conclusion. ??与之相反，美国在接下来的十年或二十年甚至本世纪中叶内有一个体面的机会来成为世界强势经济体。有以下五个关键原因：??? 1. If Water is the new oil, China faces a thirsty future. Chinas freshwater reserves are about one-fifth per capita those of the United States, notes Steve Solomon, author of Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power and Civilization. Much of that supply has become dangerously polluted; ours , for the most part, has become cleaner. ?? 1。如果说水是“新的石油”，那么中国面临着一个干渴的未来。中国的人均淡水储量约为美国的五分之一，史蒂芬所罗门曾写到，为财富，权利和文明进行的奋斗是可歌可泣的。而中国的大部分淡水供应都已被污染，而我们的大部分水供应，依旧清洁。 ? ?? More important, the U.S. has become more efficient in its water usage, says So