2014年09月18日——New Yorker——Can Great Britain Survive a Scottish “No” Vote.doc

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2014年09月18日——New Yorker——Can Great Britain Survive a Scottish “No” Vote.doc

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2014年09月18日——New Yorker——Can Great Britain Survive a Scottish “No” Vote

Can Great Britain Survive a Scottish “No”?Vote? BY?JOHN CASSIDY ? ? ? CREDITPHOTOGRAPH BY ROB STOTHARD The obvious question about the referendum on Scottish independence is: Will?the secessionists win? The answer looks likely to be no. Of all the opinion polls carried out in the run-up to the vote, only one has shown the pro-independence side in the lead, and that survey was taken almost two weeks ago. The vast majority of the polls show the “no” side?narrowly ahead; two?published on Wednesday?gave the unionists fifty-two per cent and the “yes” side forty-eight per cent, though both found a fair number of undecideds. I wouldn’t rule out a last-minute swing toward independence. Some of the scare tactics employed by the British government and its allies?over?the past couple of weeks have been crude and clumsy: it’s always possible that the Scots, a proud and obstinate people, will react against them. But, assuming that the polls are accurate, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will escape intact. But for how long? That is the really interesting question arising out of the vote. For, although the unionist side seems likely to win this round, in the longer term the impact of the referendum could well be disastrous for those who want to maintain the status quo. About the best they can hope for is a federalized Great Britain that retains the word “United” in its name but is, for?most intents and purposes, two separate countries. And even that outcome may prove to be unsustainable. Indeed, the English, who today are lamenting the possible dissolution?of their beloved union, may well end up kicking the Scots out of it. To understand why, you need to recall a bit of history. Thursday’s vote didn’t come out of nowhere. Scottish nationalism has been growing in strength since the seventies and eighties, when Mrs. Thatcher’s brand of free-market economics and militarism alienated many of those north of the border. In a 1999 referendum, the Scots voted for d