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《金融时报》：灾难后的日本 作者: 选自英国《金融时报》 Lex专栏 译者: 爱尔兰UCD 赖小琪? 从客观能力上讲，日本大概比几乎其它任何一个国家都能更好地应对上周的地震和海啸，尽管人员伤亡惨重，核事故的后果也相当可怖。但从经济上讲，日本的情况几乎糟糕到极点。爱思英语网 Objectively speaking, Japan is probably more capable than almost any other country to respond to the earthquake and tsunami last week. Despite heavy casualties, the consequence of nuclear accidents is also quite terrible. But economically speaking, the situation in Japan is almost worse to the extreme. 首先，灾难推高了本已高估的日元汇率，这或者是因为投资者和保险公司都在把资金汇回国内，或者是别人在押注他们会这么做。遭遇停电和工厂被淹的出口商，还将不得不面对其产品价格竞争力下降的局面。爱思英语网 First, the disaster has pushed the already over-valued yen exchange rate, either because investors and insurance companies are conducting the repatriation of funds, or because some people else bet they will. Experiencing power outage and flooded plants, exporters will have to face the declining price competitiveness of their products. 其次，日本央行(BoJ)挽救经济的能力有限。新西兰基督城地震过后，新西兰央行降息50个基点，但日本利率已经为零。日本央行可能（实际上也会）增加其资产购买，并出手干预汇市，以防日元升值太多，尽管它上一次试验后一种手段时，效果持续时间不长。 Second, the Bank of Japan’s ability to save the economy is limited. After the earthquake of Christchurch in New Zealand, New Zealand Central Bank cut interest rate by 50 basis points, while Japans interest rate has been zero. Bank of Japan may (actually will) increase its asset purchases and intervene in currency markets to prevent the over-appreciation of the yen, even though the effect did not last long when it adopted the latter measure last time.爱思英语网 第三，日本政府将需要重建灾区。1995年神户地震过后，日本政府拿出了国内生产总值(GDP)的3%。从理论上讲，这应该会对日本处于通缩的经济带来一次有用的短期刺激（GDP的任何增长都将来自替换损失的资产，因此不应过分强调）。但日本已经是发达世界中负债最重的国家，平均每位国民背负着520万日元的总债务。日本政府应减少、而非增加开支。Third, the Japanese government will need to rebuild the affected areas. After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Japanese government spent 3% of the gross domestic product (GDP) to counter the disaster. In theory, this should bring a useful short-term boost to Japanese in-deflation economy (Any GDP growth will come from any replacement of lost assets, so it should not be overemphasi