定稿—山东省对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究.doc

山东省对外贸易对经济增长影响的实证研究 李继伟 西南大学经济管理学院，重庆400715 摘要：经济增长一直是人们关注的问题，而在几乎所有的经济增长理论中都会涉及对外贸易对经济增长的影响，因此，两者之间的关系问题一直是理论界争论的焦点。而对外贸易与经济增长的关系因不同地区、不同的经济条件而呈现不同特征。本文选取山东省1984—2008年的GDP为经济增长的衡量指标，并把它设为被解释变量，把山东省1984—2008年的出口额、进口额、以及净出口额设为三个解释变量，分别建立回归模型，采用计量经济学中经典的普通最小二乘法（OLS）估计方法，对山东省对外贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证研究，研究表明山东省经济增长与出口和进口之间存在着稳定关系，经济增长能促进对外贸易的发展。最后根据研究得出的结论并联系山东省省情提出相应对策建议。 关键词：山东省；对外贸易；经济增长；实证研究 An Empirical Analysis on the Impact of Foreign Trade on Economic Growth in Shandong Province Li Jiwei College of Economics and Management, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China Abstract：Economic growth has been of concern for people and the impact of foreign trade on economic growth is involved in almost all the economic growth theory. Therefore, the relationship between the Economic growth and foreign trade has been the focus of debate. On the other hand, they character different relationships because of the regions, economic conditions are different. This paper selects the measure of economic growth which comes from GDP of Shandong Province from 1984-2008, and sets the measure of economic to be explanatory variables. At the same time, the paper also sets the exports, imports and net exports of Shandong Province from 1984-2008 to three explanatory variables, establishing regression model respectively. Empirical study of relationships between the Economic growth and foreign trade is held by using the classical ordinary least squares (OLS) in econometrics. As a result, the research shows that the relationship between economic growth and import and export is stable and economic growth can promote the development of foreign trade. Finally, the author came to the conclusion based on the study and made strategies and suggestions according to the practical conditions of Shandong province. Key words：Shandong Province; Foreign trade; Economic growth; Empirical Study 1 引言 改革开放以来，特别是加入WTO后，我国的对外贸易取得了飞速发展，经济增长对外贸依存度从1980年的13%提高到了2006年的70%以上。随着我国外贸依存度的不断提高，对外贸易对经济增长的作用成为了政府、学术界关注的问题。大多数研究表明，