亚洲服务业发展.doc

PARK JAE-SANG has shown the way forward. The South Korean rapper, known as PSY, this week topped the pop charts in Britain and lay second in America. His gloriously inane video, “Gangnam Style” (with some 350m online viewings so far), has proved that Asia’s economic powerhouses can lead the world in exporting intangible goodies as well as things you can drop on your foot. Facing an alarming economic slowdown, much of Asia needs to learn the lesson: service industries are the future. 朴载相向我们展示了发展的道路。韩国说唱歌手PSY，在本周登上英国流行音乐榜首，美国音乐榜第二。他华丽得无厘头的MV江南style（目前大约3.5亿观看量），证明了亚洲经济马力能够引领世界无形商品和有形商品的出口。面对着令人担忧的经济下滑，许多亚洲国家必须学习一个门课程：服务业才是未来。 That is a crude summary of the latest “Outlook” for the region published this week by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). For almost the entire region, it is far gloomier than the ADB’s previous forecast in April—if still startlingly perky by Western benchmarks. In Asia as a whole, excluding Japan, economic growth this year is expected to slow to 6.1%, from 7.2% in 2011. 这是本周亚洲发展银行出版的关于该区域的必威体育精装版“展望”的简略总结。比起亚洲发展银行之前在四月的预测，该区域的大多国家都表现出更加暗淡的前景-----如果比起西方国家衡量基准或许有活力得多。从全亚洲看，除去日本，本年度的经济增长预测会从2011年的7.2%下降到今年的6.1% 。 Much of this can be blamed on the feeble state of the rich-world economy. Since April, fears that the euro zone is on the brink of a cataclysmic meltdown have eased somewhat. Yet they are not about to go away altogether, and optimism over the prospects for the biggest market for much of Asia’s exports is still remote. Add in an anaemic recovery, at best, in America, and the worry that its economy might tumble off a fiscal cliff in December, and the outlook for external demand is bleak. In China exports to Europe fell by about 5% in the first eight months of this year, compared with a year earlier. 着大多要归咎于富裕经济体虚弱的现状。从四月起，欧元区在灾难性崩溃边缘的担忧已经有所缓和。但是这些担忧并没有完全消散，大多数亚洲出口国的最大市场的乐观前景仍然渺茫。加上美国无力的经济复苏还有其经济可能在12月坠入财政悬崖的担忧，外部需求的前景显得暗淡无光。今年前八个月中国对欧洲出口同比下降了大约5%。 Indeed, it is China that accounts for much of the regional slowdown, with the ADB’s forecast for GDP