客流预测论文：长株潭城际轨道交通客流预测研究.docVIP

客流预测论文：长株潭城际轨道交通客流预测研究 【中文摘要】近年来，我国城市群的快速发展，使得各个城市间的交通需求越来越大。然而，很多中心城市和外围城市间缺乏很好的横向联系，各城市内部的交通结构也存在一定的缺陷。作为一种集大运量、便捷、舒适、准时，“公交化”特点于一体的城际轨道交通运输方式应运而生。客流预测对轨道交通的各个方面和各个阶段都起着及其重要的作用。论文针对长株潭城市群轨道交通进行客流预测研究，首先对城际轨道交通进行基本讨论，详细研究了城际轨道交通的定义、地位和特点，探讨了客流预测的重要性以及主要方法。然后，分析了长株潭城际轨道交通客流时空分布、供需特征及综合交通环境现状。根据现有的行政分区及轨道交通站点设置情况，在划定26个交通小区后，采用四阶段预测法对长株潭城际轨道交通进行客流预测。重点在客流生成阶段，利用改进后的回归模型和弹性系数法，从两种预测结果选出最合理的结果；客流分布阶段，采用基于土地利用的分布模型来对客流生成量进行分布预测；方式划分阶段，利用旅客意愿调查表中出行者对各种交通方式服务水平的要求和选择交通方式时所持的价值基准，在广义费用计算时重点考虑时间和费用两个影响因素，建立符合本地区实际情况的Logit模型。最后，对客流预测结果进行分时段估算，获得了全日客流量、全日客流周转量、全日分小时段客流量、全日高峰小时客流量等关键定量指标。 【英文摘要】In recent years, rapid development of our country city group makes each city’straffic demand increasing. However, a lot of center city and the peripheral city lacksgood transverse connection, the inner city traffic structures also exist certain defects.As a kind of large volume, convenient, comfortable, on time, the “bus” features in oneof the intercity rail transportation mode emerge as the times require.Passenger flow forecast plays an important role on each aspect and each stage ofrail transportation. Aiming at the Chang-Zhu-Tan city group rail transit, the thesisresearches passenger flow forecast, firstly, basic discussion of intercity rail transit, adetailed study of the intercity rail transit抯 definition, position and characteristic,discussed the importance and main methods for passenger flow forecast. Then,analysis of Chang-Zhu-Tan Intercity Rail transit passenger flow distribution, supplyand demand characteristics and integrated traffic environment. According to theexisting administrative division and rail transit site settings, in the delineation of 26traffic area, using four stages prediction method to passenger flow forecast forChang-Zhu-Tan Intercity Rail Transit. Focus on the passenger flow generation phase,the use of the improved regression model and elastic coefficient method, from the twoprediction results to select the more reasonable results; passenger flow distributi