中国经济对澳大利亚的影响(英文)中国经济对澳大利亚的影响(英文).pdf

Question Examine the effects of a China “hard landing” on the Australian economy. What effect would this have upon the industry mix in the Australian economy over the short and medium term? For discussion please contact haichen.yang1999@ 1 / 9 Table of Contents 1 Define the “hardlanding” quantitatively3 1.1 Chinese Domestic Consumption 3 2 Impact on Australia 3 2.1 Impacts by industry 4  Mining Industry 4  Tourism Industry 5  Share Market 5 2.2 Global Impact on the Australia’s economy 5 3 Australia Government Policy 6 4 Conclusion 7 References8 2 / 9 1 Define the “hardlanding” quantitatively Chinese economy has been growing at 10% over 30 years, but the current growth rate has been reduced to around 8%. When the hardlanding is discussed, what the GDP growth rate will be? In this essay, excluding the extreme cases, the factors of weak demand, bad banking loan etc suggested by Durden [1] will be considered in analysing economic slowdown (Figure 1). Figure 1 Crisis Triggers 1.1 Chinese Domestic Consumption The exports consist of only 27.5% of China’s GDP [2] the slump of domestic consumptions would be a key factor of its slowdown. Compared with other general consumptions, the most important factors of keeping strong domestic demand growth will be housing industry and heavy infrastructure investments as the Chinese population growth rate is only 0.47% [3]. Due to the urbanization and industrialisation, the housing market of China has been growing significantly for 30 years, but in recent years there has been a clear sign of oversupply in median sized cities [4]. In big cities, like Beijing, the h