产业投资结构对广东省能源消费和GDP的影响研究产业投资结构对广东省能源消费和GDP的影响研究.pdf

Sustainable Development 可持续发展, 2017, 7(4), 226-239 Published Online October 2017 in Hans. /journal/sd /10.12677/sd.2017.74028 The Impact of Industrial Investment Structure on Energy Consumption and GDP in Guangdong Zhao Wang1,2,3,4, Peng Wang1,2,3*, Hanshi Qin1,2,3,4, Daiqing Zhao1,2,3 1 Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Science, Guangzhou Guangdong 2 CAS Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Guangzhou Guangdong 3 Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of New and Renewable Energy Research and Development, Guangzhou Guangdong 4 University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing st th st Received: Oct. 1 , 2017; accepted: Oct. 19 , 2017; published: Oct. 31 , 2017 Abstract Based on the dynamic CGE model of Guangdong region, this paper simulates the change of energy consumption and GDP of Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2030 under different industrial in- vestment structure. It is found that for the ferrous metal processing industry, petrochemical in- dustry, textile industry and paper industry, non-ferrous metal processing industry, by limiting and decreasing its investment quota year by year, can reduce its energy consumption to a large extent; for the power of thermal gas water production and supply industry, the appropriate slowdown in investment growth, will be able to achieve the better results; for the transportation industry, min- eral mining industry, the effect of restricted investment is not obvious; for non-metallic mineral in- dustry, limiting investment but will be counterproductive. Therefore, when we formulate invest- ment policies, we must take into account the differences in the sens