基于混合时间序列模型的云南省能源消费预测研究.pdfVIP

Statistical and Application 统计学与应用, 2014, 3, 182-192 Published Online December 2014 in Hans. /journal/sa /10.12677/sa.2014.34025 Energy Consumption Prediction in Yunnan Province Based on Mixed Time Series Model 1 2 Xiaoxiao Yin , Wen Gan 1 School of Statistics and Mathematics, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming 2 International Business School, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming Email: yinxiaoxiao2011@163.com th th st Received: Oct. 10 , 2014; revised: Nov. 12 , 2014; accepted: Nov. 21 , 2014 Copyright © 2014 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract Energy is an important material security for human survival, economic development and social progress. Based on the historical data of energy consumption in Yunnan Province, we first estab- lish a trend extrapolation model to estimate the total energy consumption of Yunan Province in the future. Second, we combine the trend extrapolation model and ARIMA model to give a mixed time series model. The prediction results of these two models are analysed and compared. The results show that the mixed time series model is performed better. This indicates that the mixed time series model is a useful theoretical tool for energy prediction in Yunnan Province. Keywords Trend Extrapolation Model, ARIMA Model, Mixed Time Series Model, Energy Consumption, Predictions 基于混合时间序列模型的云南省能源 消费预测研究 1 2 尹潇潇 ，干 文 1云南财经大学统计与数学学院，昆明 2云南财经大学国际工商学院，昆明 Email: yinxiaoxiao2011@163.com