The oil price Recoil油价反弹.doc

The oil price Recoil油价反弹May 29th 2008From The Economist print editionPainful though it is, this oil shock will eventually spur huge change. Beware the hunt for scapegoatsIN THE early 1970s a fourfold rise in the price of oil almost brought the world to a standstill. The shock of the Arab embargo left a deep mark in many countries: America subjected its cars to fuel-efficiency standards, France embraced nuclear power—though sadly “energy-conscious fashion”, the inspiration for Japans fetching short-sleeved business suit, was ahead of its time.Thirty-five years on, oil prices have quadrupled again, briefly soaring to a peak of just over $135 a barrel. But, so far, this has been a slow-motion oil shock. If the Arab oil-weapon felt like a hammer-blow, this time stagnant oil output and growing emerging-market demand have squeezed the oil market like a vice. For almost five years a growing world shrugged it off. Only now is it recoiling in pain.This week French fishermen clogged up the port of Dunkirk and British lorry-drivers choked roads into London and Cardiff. Nicolas Sarkozy, Frances president, suggested subsidising the worst affected and curbing taxes on petrol; Britains beleaguered government is being pressed to forgo its tax increases on motorists. In America falling house prices have left consumers resentful—and short of money. Congress and presidential candidates have been drafting schemes and gas-tax holidays like so many campaign leaflets. Gordon Brown, Britains prime minister, thinks the big oil producers can be persuaded to come to the rescue. But only Saudi Arabia shows any enthusiasm for that. Elsewhere, output is growing agonisingly slowly. That is causing hardship and recrimination. But it could also come to represent an opportunity. The slow-motion shock seems irresistible today, but in time it will give rise to an equally unstoppable and more positive slow-motion reaction (see article).Action replay It is clear that high oil prices