中国商用车市场分析.ppt

01/January/2007 Strategy Corporate Development China Commercial Vehicle Market Overview Discussion Paper – Beijing, February 7, 2007 Heavy duty truck and light truck outperformed other segments during last 6 years Chinese truck market, 2000-2010E, [‘000 units] Heavy duty truck will see a rebound in the next years, after a sudden slump caused by government austerity measures Heavy duty truck segment Within HDT segment, specialty vehicles and tractors are most attractive Price wise, medium/upper medium segment provides better entry opportunity Concentration rate has been decreasing dramatically Heavy duty market share evolution [‘000 units] Most OEMs have formed alliances with foreign players Powered by the fast development of intra-urban logistics, light truck sector is experiencing a strong growth A competition pattern of Major 7 to 10 players remains for the last 5 years, which leads to much more fierce competition Future trends of light truck industry: from scattered to concentrated More platforms are emerging and will break the domination of ISUZU platform in medium/high end sector Higher diesel engine price caused by National III Emission Standard forces light truck makers partly replace with gasoline engine in the short term The implementation of Euro III by July 2007 will cause a restructuring in competition pattern, leading makers will be getting stronger Market below 3.5T(GTW) will still be the major battlefield, and will account for 60% of the market. While drived by development of urban logistics, the relative small market above 4.5T (GTW) will see a rapid growth Concentrate rate will continue go down before 2008, after then industrial merger/acquisition might take place Bus market is expected to continue stable growth over the next 5 years, reaching 1.8 million units by 2010 Most Sino-foreign programs in medium/large bus segment focus on high end/luxury products, though high end only occupies 5% of total volume Mini Bus segment will maintain an 8-10