从需求角度分析甘肃经济增长要素的研究.doc

摘要 衡量经济增长的主要指标是国内生产总值（GDP）。国内生产总值由三大需求，即由消费需求、投资需求、净出口需求构成。三大需求各自的增量之和为当年国内生产总值的总增量。三大需求的数量、结构、增长率及其相关性, 决定了经济运行的质量及经济增长的速度。对消费、投资、净出口需求贡献率的研究，有利于我们深入考察宏观政策的应用效果。本文基于SPSS统计软件，利用甘肃省1978-2009年统计数据，对三大需求与经济增长（GDP）之间的关系分别建立线性回归模型。具体分析这三大要素对经济拉动作用的大小，得出较合理的线性相关模型，并对这一结果从经济学角度进行了深入分析和研究。另外，还就三大需求对甘肃省的贡献度以及投资与消费的相关性进行了实证研究。 关键词：甘肃省；经济增长；需求；贡献度；线性回归  Abstract The economic growth was mainly measured by the Gross domestic product (GDP). Gross domestic product is composed by the three major demands, namely consumption demand, investment demand and net exports demand. The sum of self-incremental of the three major demands is the total incremental of GDP in that year. The quantity, structure, grow rate of the three major demands and its relevance, determines the quality of economic operation and the speed of economic. The study on the contribution rate of consumption demand, investment demand and net exports demand, is helpful to in-depth observe the application effects of macroeconomic policies. This study based on SPSS statistics software, using Gansu province statistics data in 1978~2009, we establish a linear regression model between the relationship of economic growth (GDP) and the three major demands, respectively. We concretely analysis the three major demands in stimulating economic growth, get a reasonable model of linear correlation, and analysis in-depth on this results from the perspective of economic. In addition, we research on the contribution of the three major demands of Gansu province, and study the relationship between investment and consumption. Key words: Gansu Province; Economic growth; Demand; Contribution; Linear regression 目 录 1. 绪论 1 1.1 经济学背景：需求的含义 1 1.1.1 最终消费 1 1.1.2 资本形成总额 2 1.1.3 货物和服务净出口 2 1.2 数据来源以及计量模型 2 2. 消费、投资和净出口三大需求对甘肃省GDP的贡献分析 3 2.1 GDP的核算公式，三大需求对GDP贡献度的定义及计算公式 3 2.1.1 支出法核算GDP 3 2.1.2 三大需求对GDP贡献度 3 2.2 历年甘肃省GDP的构成 3 2.3 1978~2009年三大需求对甘肃省GDP的贡献度分析 4 2.4 1978~2009年三大需求增长率与GDP增长率的比较 4 3. 甘肃省投资增长趋势和消费增长趋势分析 7 3.1 1978~2009甘肃省投资发展